The bifurcated U.S. economy: soft on the business side but solid growth on the consumer side

Risks to the U.S. economic outlook include a possible federal government shutdown and yet-to-be-resolved trade issues. Plus, Visa’s U.S. economic forecast through 2021.
Real GDP CAGR: 2.5% in Mar 2018 to 1.7% forecast in Dec 2021, with line overlay for real GDP YoY % change: 2.86% in Mar 2018 to 1.74% in Dec 2021(f).
Real consumer spending CAGR: 1.7% in Mar 2018 to 2.0% forecast in Dec 2021, with line overlay for YoY % change: 2.8% in Mar 2018 to 2.0% in Dec 2021.

What is in store for consumer spending in 2020?

Expect the Fed to remain on hold

Key risks to the outlook

December 2019 U.S. forecast table, with key economic indicators from 2019 through forecast 2021. Described in detail below.
A table depicts the compound annual growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2019 to forecast 2021. The rows in the table cover the subcategories of data that are included in the GDP—from personal consumption and business fixed investments, to government purchases. Additional economic indicators are provided, such as retail sales excluding autos, nominal personal consumption and the Consumer Price Index. The forecast was created on December 12, 2019. Note: annual numbers represent year-over-year percent changes and annual averages. Interest rates presented are end of quarter rates.