2023 Annual Global Economic Outlook

The plot thickens for 2023.

Europe: Inflation shock

Canada: Housing boom to bust?

LAC: E-commerce gains

Top e-commerce B2C apps for LAC. See image description for details.
Monthly active users of global apps increased from 3 mil. in Jan-2015 to a high of 18 mil. in Apr-2018, but have since declined to 6 mil. in Nov-2022. In comparison, monthly active users of local LAC apps in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela increased from 13 mil. in Jan-2015 to 31 mil. in Apr-2018 and a high of 66 mil. in Sep-2020, to the latest reading of 43 mil. in Nov-2022.

United States: The strength of the dollar

U.S. Trade weighted dollar index. See image description for details.
The U.S. trade weighted dollar index ranged from 110.2 in Q1-2019 to 113.1 in Q1-2020, a low of 102.6 in Q4-2020, a high of 123.8 in Q3-2022, and is forecast to decline to 109.5 by Q4-2024. 

Asia Pacific: The China slowdown

China investment and Asia exports. See image description for details.
China investment growth one year after a global cycle change ranged from 8% year-over-year in 2002 to 30% in 2010, 11% in 2017, 26% in 2021 and is expected to decline to 1.5% in 2023, with China’s investment growth averaging 19%. In comparison, Asian export growth one year after a global cycle change ranged from 19% year-over-year in 2002 to 21% in 2010, 7% in 2017, 5% in 2021, and is expected to decline to -4.5% in 2023, with Asia’s export growth averaging 13%.

CEMEA: Shifting demographics