Holiday sales expected to rise 4.1 percent year-over-year

Shoppers plan to spend more on gifts this holiday season.
Holiday ornaments and lights hung on a wooden block.
Goods producing employment from 1.92% yr-over-yr growth in Jan 2014 to 1.32% in Sept 2019, compared with service sector employment from 2.06% to 1.57%.
Mo-over-mo change in consumer confidence ranging from 3.34% in Jan 2017 to .2% in Sept 2019, compared with nominal personal spending from .43% to .32%.

Consumer economic conditions remain strong

A holly jolly outlook?

Peak spending expected to occur on…

What people plan to spend on gifts: from 25% of people spending $51-$300 and 23% spending $301-$500, to 10% spending $1K-$2K and 5% spending $2K+.
Share of consumers planning to shop on Thanksgiving grew from 13% in 2017 to 17% in 2019, on Black Friday 38% to 43%, and on Cyber Monday steady at 35%.
More older Americans (89% of those 55+ vs 55% of those under 35 and 71% overall) prefer to shop online with a mobile device compared to other devices.
Bar chart showing year-over-year growth in holiday retail sales ranging from 3.2% in 2013 up to 5.9% in 2017 and 4.1 forecast for this year.

What factors could dampen holiday spirits?

Forward looking statements