April 3, 2019 –The ongoing U.S. economic expansion is forecast to break a record in July 2019 for the longest uninterrupted growth streak since records have been kept. Economists always point out that economic cycles do not die of old age. However, as the current economic cycle continues, the risk of another downturn does increase.
Here, Visa's Principal U.S. Economist, Michael Brown, discusses how much longer the current economic expansion can continue and the key economic indicators to watch for signs of a downturn in the U.S. economy.
Other highlights of this video:
- Key measures of the past: how useful are they today?
- The inverted yield curve successfully identified every downturn in the last 60 years – is it as reliable in the current environment?
- The unemployment rate is one of the key economic metrics that is closely watched for signs of a downturn, but how useful is it today in light of current demographic headwinds and shifting labor force participation?