Making the yield curve steep again

Signs that economic growth should stabilize in the fourth quarter.
Real GDP CAGR: 2.5% in Mar 2018 to 1.8% forecast in Dec 2021, with line overlay for real GDP YoY % change: 2.86% in Mar 2018 to 1.82% in Dec 2021(f).
Line chart showing percent change in the yield curve from 1.15% in Jan 2018 to .015% in October 2019.

Expect consumer spending to downshift in Q4

Interest rates beginning to support credit market

Key risks to the outlook

November 2019 U.S. forecast table, with key economic indicators from 2017 through forecast 2021. Described in detail below.